Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1227…4c44 sports 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$495 (+13%) realized +$495 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%37W / 47L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$71
14 days−$68
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$444
other 16% −$36
crypto 15% +$41
politics 7% −$21
tech 3% +$2
world 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -59.5% -63.4% 29% 29% -41.6%
≤30d 8 -50.2% -54.9% 38% 38% -37.8%
≤90d 8 -50.2% -54.9% 38% 38% -37.8%
all 84 -14.3% -22.4% 44% 33% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 33% +1.4%
10% -29.9% 31% -8.3%
15% -36.6% 26% -17.1%
20% -42.9% 18% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$24 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$495
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses37 / 47
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage155d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $48 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $47 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $65 −$53 -82%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $69 +$31 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $18 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 26 $32 −$2 -7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Play Feb 20 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 10 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 09 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1PM ET Feb 06 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12PM ET Feb 06 $53 +$35 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 06 $20 +$22 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 06 $24 +$17 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4AM ET Feb 06 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6PM ET Feb 06 $80 +$125 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5PM ET Feb 05 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4PM ET Feb 05 $50 +$85 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3PM ET Feb 05 $16 +$25 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2PM ET Feb 05 $36 −$26 -72%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 03 $180 +$180 +100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 02 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Feb 02 $99 +$135 +136%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Feb 02 $80 +$19 +23%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 02 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $100 +$39 +39%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jan 31 $5 −$3 -68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jan 31 $196 +$78 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jan 31 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs BIG (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Playoffs Jan 30 $190 −$10 -5%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jan 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 30 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jan 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-29? Jan 30 $123 +$43 +35%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-01-29? Jan 30 $100 +$75 +75%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. PAOK end in a draw? Jan 29 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Nemiga (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Playoffs Jan 29 $150 +$71 +47%
Will MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Jan 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Playoff Jan 29 $17 −$17 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $88 −$12 -13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Jan 29 $102 +$227 +224%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $35 +$17 +47%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club end in a draw? Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Bebop (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jan 28 $60 −$40 -67%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? Jan 28 $28 +$55 +195%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $48 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $49 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 48¢ $54 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 43¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 68¢ $69 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $22 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 23¢ $0 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 19¢ $0 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 50¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $18 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $12 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $13 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 116d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Play SELL Vitality 100¢ $120 122d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Play BUY Vitality 84¢ $101 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $40 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $21 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $78 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $88 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.01 · official $95.01 (match) · 211 history records