Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:19:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1225…2ebf crypto 548 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$417 (-0%) realized −$547 · open +$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate76%416W / 128L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day70.8pace
Fees−$308est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,886now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,537
7 days+$399
14 days+$130
30 days−$690
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% +$80
sports 29% −$2,716
finance 18% −$11
other 7% +$675
tech 7% +$1,022
weather 6% −$454
world 5% +$708
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -0.5% -10.0% 80% 25% -8.8%
≤30d 448 -1.2% -10.6% 77% 38% -9.7%
≤90d 544 -1.6% -11.0% 76% 38% -9.8%
all 544 -1.6% -11.0% 76% 38% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 38% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 14% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 5% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$94 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$1,886
Realized−$547
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses416 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$308
Open positions4
Markets (closed)544 / 548
History coverage36d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day70.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Up 72¢ 96¢ $548 $725 +$177 (+32%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $606 $632 +$26 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? No 91¢ 77¢ $525 $444 −$81 (-15%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 18? Yes 84¢ 92¢ $77 $85 +$8 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $336 +$29 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $528 −$411 -78%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? Jun 18 $561 +$184 +33%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,349 −$786 -58%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,048 −$815 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,067 +$96 +5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $314 +$6 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $902 +$25 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,164 +$15 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 16? Jun 17 $960 −$11 -1%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $194 +$24 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 16? Jun 17 $142 +$3 +2%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 17? Jun 16 $1,197 −$81 -7%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? Jun 16 $779 +$63 +8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $127 −$4 -3%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,171 +$126 +11%
Ethereum above 1,780 on June 16, 11AM ET? Jun 16 $137 −$104 -76%
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 10AM ET? Jun 16 $26 +$2 +8%
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 16, 10AM ET? Jun 16 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,536 +$99 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,056 +$28 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? Jun 16 $526 +$60 +12%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,956 +$116 +6%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 15? Jun 15 $132 +$7 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,647 +$291 +18%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,632 +$15 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $942 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,224 −$542 -44%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 15? Jun 15 $285 +$87 +30%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$15 +15%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 15? Jun 15 $150 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $507 +$74 +15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $471 +$48 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $1,019 +$61 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $309 +$11 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $466 +$29 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 14? Jun 15 $787 +$21 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $773 +$19 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $397 +$20 +5%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $41 −$7 -16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $491 +$32 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,408 +$32 +2%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $1,927 +$18 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,911 +$17 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $266 +$6 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$7 +13%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,665 +$26 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 96¢ $240 8m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 96¢ $186 8m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 96¢ $0 8m
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $428 17m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 96¢ $0 18m
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $27 18m
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $6 19m
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $63 19m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 96¢ $8 22m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 96¢ $46 23m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 95¢ $236 29m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $201 30m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 95¢ $1 30m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 95¢ $0 31m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 95¢ $0 31m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 94¢ $33 39m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 94¢ $1 39m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 94¢ $2 40m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $434 51m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 94¢ $38 53m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 94¢ $47 55m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 94¢ $114 55m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 93¢ $70 55m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 93¢ $46 55m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 93¢ $46 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 93¢ $46 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 93¢ $23 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 73¢ $1,094 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 70¢ $373 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $44 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,885.64 · official $1,936.58 · 2621 history records