Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:00:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
12 0x1223…5c5f crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$157 (-24%) realized −$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$142
economics 8% −$3
world 5% +$1
tech 5% −$29
other 4% −$10
sports 3% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +84.0% +66.5% 62% 54% +33.0%
≤30d 13 +84.0% +66.5% 62% 54% +33.0%
≤90d 13 +84.0% +66.5% 62% 54% +33.0%
all 32 +15.5% +4.5% 47% 34% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 34% -32.5%
10% -5.5% 28% -39.0%
15% -14.6% 28% -44.9%
20% -23.0% 25% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)32 / 40
History coverage212d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +325%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -82%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$12 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 04 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 04 $100 −$90 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 04 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 04 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 04 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 04 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 04 $3 +$7 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 04 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 04 $6 −$6 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? Mar 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 28 $52 −$3 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 28 $148 +$2 +2%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 17 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $23 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $6 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $4 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $100 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.30 · official $21.30 (match) · 87 history records