Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:20:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
12 0x1222…c578 politics 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$17
politics 42% −$20
sports 6% +$12
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 119 -1.9% -11.2% 6% 4% -9.7%
all 127 -1.8% -11.1% 8% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage114d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $354 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $341 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $283 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $298 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $286 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 25 $257 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $307 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $221 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $236 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $279 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 16 $300 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $523 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $211 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $310 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $265 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $234 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $297 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $225 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $300 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $236 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $309 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $273 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $217 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $316 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 02 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $267 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $260 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $253 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $255 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $732 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $26 4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $26 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 7d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 7d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 8d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 8d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 9d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $38 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 12d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 17d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 18d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 19d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $283 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $283 23d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $298 23d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $298 23d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $286 24d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $286 24d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $257 24d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $257 25d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $307 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.98 · official $48.98 (match) · 366 history records