Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
12 0x121f…b4ee other 9 markets active 10h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$290 (+7%) realized +$290 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$468per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$321
sports 21% +$537
crypto 5% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.7% -19.2% 22% 22% -5.7%
≤30d 9 -10.7% -19.2% 22% 22% -5.7%
≤90d 9 -10.7% -19.2% 22% 22% -5.7%
all 9 -10.7% -19.2% 22% 22% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 22% -5.7%
10% -26.9% 22% -14.7%
15% -34.0% 22% -23.0%
20% -40.5% 22% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$388 vs −$86 · ×4.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$290
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$468
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $771 +$630 +82%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,402 −$24 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $215 −$39 -18%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $616 −$123 -20%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $206 −$19 -9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $410 −$9 -2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $96 −$94 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 +$146 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $294 −$292 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 96¢ $1,401 9h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $101 15h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $162 15h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $507 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $1,378 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $464 33h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $176 33h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $293 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $187 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $187 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $401 33h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $401 33h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $44 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $346 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $47 46h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $38 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $133 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $99 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $411 47h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 47h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $206 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 47h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $193 47h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records