Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:32:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x121d…832a world 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$366 (+1%) realized +$1,320 · open −$954
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate54%66W / 56L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$973now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$594
7 days+$1,176
14 days+$1,176
30 days+$1,057
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$949
politics 4% −$805
other 3% +$361
sports 3% +$9
crypto 3% −$194
weather 2% +$28
tech 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +64.7% +49.0% 44% 28% +2.3%
≤30d 29 +28.4% +16.2% 48% 24% -1.8%
≤90d 113 -13.3% -21.5% 52% 23% -5.5%
all 122 -9.3% -17.9% 54% 25% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 25% -4.4%
10% -25.8% 16% -13.6%
15% -32.9% 11% -21.9%
20% -39.5% 7% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$58 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$973
Realized+$1,320
Unrealized−$954
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses66 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)122 / 135
History coverage127d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 83¢ 91¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 82¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 87¢ 90¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 95¢ 97¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 88¢ 88¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 83¢ 91¢ $83 $91 +$8 (+10%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 63¢ 86¢ $63 $86 +$24 (+38%)
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 87¢ 96¢ $71 $78 +$7 (+10%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No $1,020 $11 −$1,009 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $100 −$17 -16%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 17 $90 −$6 -7%
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$252 +50%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $700 +$394 +56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $711 +$9 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $650 +$299 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1,000 −$219 -22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $826 −$4 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $51 −$19 -37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 12 $1,000 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $2,135 +$243 +11%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 12 $17 +$228 +1377%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $1,000 +$53 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $60 −$33 -55%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $500 +$98 +20%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 27 $100 +$5 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $150 −$150 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $1,500 +$214 +14%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $500 −$22 -4%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $110 May 4-10? May 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 May 4-10? May 12 $117 −$47 -40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $334 −$334 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 09 $100 +$5 +5%
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw? May 08 $7 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Zachary Svajda May 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jiri Lehecka May 08 $10 +$1 +7%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals May 07 $10 +$1 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Cristian Garin vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 07 $10 +$1 +6%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees May 07 $10 +$1 +8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Sonego vs Ignacio Buse May 07 $10 $0 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Valentin Royer May 07 $10 $0 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sebastian Ofner vs Alex Michelsen May 07 $9 +$1 +9%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katerina Siniakova vs Anna Kalinskaya May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8? May 07 $141 −$137 -97%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9? May 07 $106 −$96 -91%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 06 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $83 57m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 58m
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 48¢ $48 58m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 75¢ $105 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $20 3h
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 8h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 9h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 9h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 11h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 83¢ $25 11h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 16? BUY No $20 11h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 16? BUY No $0 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $100 11h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 83¢ $33 11h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 83¢ $25 12h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 12h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 63¢ $63 12h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 72¢ $100 12h
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July BUY No 87¢ $100 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 12h
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 87¢ $26 12h
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 12h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 12h
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 88¢ $100 12h
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 95¢ $100 12h
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 87¢ $15 12h
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 87¢ $15 12h
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 87¢ $15 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $973.46 · official $973.35 (match) · 686 history records