Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
12 0x121a…ca6b other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$749 (+3%) realized +$721 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$715per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$530
14 days+$530
30 days+$530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 38% +$678
politics 29% +$2,850
other 14% −$3,320
crypto 12% −$579
world 5% +$287
finance 2% +$816
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 50% +36.5%
≤30d 2 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 50% +36.5%
≤90d 7 -76.2% -78.5% 14% 14% -50.1%
all 28 -23.7% -31.0% 39% 25% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 25% -7.3%
10% -37.6% 18% -16.1%
15% -43.6% 18% -24.2%
20% -49.1% 14% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,193) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$628 vs −$365 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$1,130
Realized+$721
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)28 / 41
History coverage594d
Avg bet$715
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $219 $224 +$6 (+3%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 17¢ 18¢ $199 $216 +$18 (+9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $126 $195 +$69 (+55%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $99 $117 +$18 (+18%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $94 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $108 $81 −$27 (-25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $99 $66 −$33 (-33%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $67 $58 −$8 (-12%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+15%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $944 +$627 +66%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $96 −$96 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 05 $98 −$98 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 05 $99 −$99 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Mar 27 $591 −$591 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Mar 27 $922 −$922 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $690 +$1,171 +170%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $896 +$384 +43%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $878 +$18 +2%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Jan 22 $1,998 −$199 -10%
Yoon arrested by January 31? Jan 20 $2,512 −$2,512 -100%
Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024? Jan 06 $398 −$398 -100%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024? Jan 06 $198 −$120 -61%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Dec 24 $1,098 +$154 +14%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 18 $4,492 +$246 +6%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Dec 11 $199 −$195 -98%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NBC interview? Dec 08 $199 −$178 -89%
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary? Nov 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary? Nov 23 $365 +$915 +251%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Nov 22 $1,999 +$27 +1%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Trump nominate Marco Rubio for Secretary of State? Nov 13 $3,814 +$543 +14%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Nov 09 $999 −$7 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? Nov 08 $2,700 +$203 +8%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 06 $1,193 +$2,625 +220%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $96 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $102 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $101 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $69 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $130 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $111 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $99 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,571 6d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 19¢ $226 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 58¢ $944 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 15¢ $99 75d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $96 85d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY Yes $98 85d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes $90 90d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 11¢ $110 105d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY Yes 17¢ $199 109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,860 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $471 161d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $690 161d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $120 161d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $896 208d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $878 234d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $515 400d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $407 400d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? SELL Yes 30¢ $1,799 513d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,129.63 · official $1,129.63 (match) · 192 history records