Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1217…965e other 243 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 235L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$24
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$35
sports 23% −$21
politics 8% −$8
culture 8% −$6
economics 7% −$6
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage127d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $424 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $256 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $330 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $363 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $155 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $131 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $189 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $546 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $153 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $324 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $346 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $383 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $192 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $215 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $415 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $303 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $569 −$2 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $411 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $216 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $167 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $309 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $309 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $201 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $280 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $143 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $198 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 29m
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 3h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 4h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 12h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 13h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 16h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 18h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $25 18h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $23 18h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 19h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 21h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 22h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $48 27h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 28h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 34h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 35h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 36h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $49 37h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 40h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 41h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 45h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 46h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1322 history records