Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
12 0x1215…2634 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+14%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1
other 10% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.1% -10.5% 56% 56% -7.0%
≤30d 17 -0.9% -10.4% 59% 53% -7.0%
≤90d 17 -0.9% -10.4% 59% 53% -7.0%
all 17 -0.9% -10.4% 59% 53% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 53% -7.0%
10% -18.9% 35% -15.9%
15% -26.8% 18% -24.0%
20% -34.0% 18% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +318%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 45h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 46h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records