Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1212…2571 sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$297 (-39%) realized −$271 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%4W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$222
other 19% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -36.5% -42.6% 19% 19% -52.0%
≤30d 21 -36.5% -42.6% 19% 19% -52.0%
≤90d 21 -36.5% -42.6% 19% 19% -52.0%
all 21 -36.5% -42.6% 19% 19% -52.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 19% -52.0%
10% -48.1% 19% -56.5%
15% -53.1% 19% -60.7%
20% -57.7% 19% -64.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$33 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$271
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses4 / 17
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 25
History coverage6d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 34¢ 8¢ $30 $7 −$23 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $31 +$69 +226%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $31 +$80 +262%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $27 −$26 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $28 −$27 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $47 −$46 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $26 +$53 +206%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $18 +$43 +238%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 6m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 15¢ $0 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $31 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $31 24h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $41 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay 9¢ $31 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (- BUY 10¢ $26 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 17¢ $31 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $31 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $27 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $41 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $28 4d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 15¢ $47 4d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 8¢ $31 4d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 32¢ $26 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 5d
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 11¢ $41 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $18 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $31 6d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 15¢ $56 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.41 · official $37.50 · 30 history records