Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1210…7337 sports 38 markets active 3h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate89%34W / 4L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,465per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$675est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,438
7 days−$7,429
14 days−$7,429
30 days−$996
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$7,262
world 40% −$7,429
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 0% -15.5%
≤30d 15 +4.4% -5.6% 93% 20% -10.0%
≤90d 38 +2.8% -7.0% 89% 11% -9.6%
all 38 +2.8% -7.0% 89% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 11% -9.6%
10% -15.9% 3% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -24.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -31.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$6,891) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
23.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$272 vs −$2,358 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses34 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$675
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage65d
Avg bet$7,465
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $101,098 −$7,438 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $12,068 +$9 +0%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $17,189 +$705 +4%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10,390 +$10 +0%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 30 $7,068 +$16 +0%
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Nottinghamshire May 29 $66 +$1 +2%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $3,279 +$42 +1%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Derbyshire May 28 $753 +$7 +1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $14,393 +$3,577 +25%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $5,798 +$913 +16%
Will Kolkata Knight Riders win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 24 $4,313 +$29 +1%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians - Compl May 20 $4 $0 +6%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad - Wh May 18 $2,210 +$18 +1%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $6,891 +$812 +12%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $5,555 +$303 +5%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $4,482 +$110 +2%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $4,201 +$309 +7%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $4,167 +$33 +1%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $4,912 −$808 -16%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants - C May 10 $199 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $5,199 −$819 -16%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants - W May 10 $276 +$1 +0%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $4,626 +$974 +21%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $4,378 +$22 +0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $4,275 +$225 +5%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $5,018 +$1 +0%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 30 $799 +$1 +0%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 26 $2,493 +$236 +9%
T20 Series South Africa vs. India, Women: South Africa vs India Apr 26 $332 +$8 +2%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians Apr 21 $498 +$2 +0%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 19 $2,471 +$13 +0%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 15 $17,382 +$293 +2%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 15 $4,636 +$114 +2%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 14 $8,459 +$220 +3%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 12 $7,935 −$365 -5%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Gujarat Titans Apr 12 $182 +$18 +10%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 11 $2,782 +$29 +1%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $2,913 +$212 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $1,214 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $127 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $21 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $359 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $60 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $94 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $9 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $3 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $77 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $110 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1612 history records