Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x120e…8907 sports 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$149 (-4%) realized −$343 · open +$194
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate64%50W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$949now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$165
14 days+$181
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$248
other 37% −$111
world 15% +$68
crypto 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +6.5% -3.7% 67% 67% +3.5%
≤30d 78 +1.0% -8.6% 64% 63% -8.2%
≤90d 78 +1.0% -8.6% 64% 63% -8.2%
all 78 +1.0% -8.6% 64% 63% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 63% -8.2%
10% -17.3% 49% -17.0%
15% -25.3% 40% -25.0%
20% -32.6% 26% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$23 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$949
Realized−$343
Unrealized+$194
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses50 / 28
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions5
Markets (closed)78 / 98
History coverage17d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 99¢ $500 $568 +$68 (+14%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Over 61¢ 100¢ $100 $164 +$64 (+64%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 100¢ $75 $138 +$63 (+84%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $29 −$10 -35%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $25 +$10 +38%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekist Jun 28 $25 +$19 +77%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 28 $61 +$29 +48%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND Croatia vs. Ghana: O Jun 28 $25 +$29 +115%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 +$3 +21%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $20 +$5 +23%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AN Jun 27 $50 +$38 +77%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND Egypt vs. IR I Jun 27 $24 +$10 +43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $37 +$26 +70%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$13 +52%
Norway vs. France: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND Norway vs. France: O/U 1 Jun 26 $30 +$12 +39%
Norway vs. France: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $9 +$12 +129%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $30 +$12 +40%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 +$3 +34%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $30 +$6 +20%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 +$3 +34%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $51 +$37 +73%
Tabur vs. Mochizuki: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $51 +$58 +115%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$15 +50%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$8 +42%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$8 +50%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$30 +119%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will A Jun 23 $58 +$49 +85%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 +$11 +55%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $29 −$21 -73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 +$11 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 1m
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $60 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U BUY 54¢ $50 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $76 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 41¢ $75 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $25 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. Ca BUY 68¢ $70 23h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 2d
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY 72¢ $30 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $30 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 74¢ $30 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $15 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 82¢ $15 2d
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $20 2d
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekist BUY 56¢ $25 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND Croatia vs. Ghana: O BUY 46¢ $25 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 58¢ $72 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 3d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND Egypt vs. IR I BUY 69¢ $24 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $25 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $37 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $15 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND Norway vs. France: O/U 1 BUY 71¢ $30 3d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AN BUY 56¢ $50 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sen BUY 49¢ $50 3d
Tabur vs. Mochizuki: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Under 98¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $949.43 · official $1,065.55 · 154 history records