Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x120d…c4c7 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$108 (-17%) realized −$107 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%25W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$82
14 days+$121
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$92
crypto 20% −$36
finance 19% −$41
other 19% −$47
world 2% −$10
tech 2% $0
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +46.0% +32.1% 57% 57% +36.0%
≤30d 26 +50.2% +35.9% 58% 58% +46.6%
≤90d 26 +50.2% +35.9% 58% 58% +46.6%
all 59 -0.9% -10.3% 42% 39% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 39% -16.6%
10% -18.9% 37% -24.5%
15% -26.7% 36% -31.8%
20% -33.9% 32% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses25 / 34
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)59 / 73
History coverage216d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 56¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+26%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Over 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 24¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Sam Altman in jail by June 30? Yes $6 $1 −$5 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U Jun 20 $10 +$10 +95%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $5 +$13 +250%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND France Jun 17 $5 +$15 +303%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$32 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$38 +369%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $16 +$19 +114%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$25 +233%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 09 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 09 $30 +$49 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 08 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 08 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 08 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 05 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan Dec 05 $10 $0 -2%
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2026? Dec 01 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 21 $5 −$4 -89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Nov 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Nov 21 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Nov 21 $5 +$8 +156%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Nov 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? Nov 17 $1 $0 -4%
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? Nov 17 $5 +$3 +68%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Nov 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $25 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 2h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $5 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U BUY 51¢ $10 15h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: BUY 14¢ $10 16h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 16h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea R BUY 13¢ $5 33h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Czechi BUY 23¢ $5 35h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $5 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Engla BUY 37¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $5 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 28¢ $5 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND France BUY 24¢ $5 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 45¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 4d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 37¢ $10 4d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $5 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY 18¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.09 · official $67.04 (match) · 108 history records