Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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12 0x120b…8c1e crypto 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-10%) realized −$25 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%33W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$30
weather 11% +$2
sports 10% +$1
other 5% $0
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -3.8% -13.0% 49% 43% -23.4%
≤30d 67 -3.8% -13.0% 49% 43% -23.4%
≤90d 67 -3.8% -13.0% 49% 43% -23.4%
all 67 -3.8% -13.0% 49% 43% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 43% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 34% -30.7%
15% -28.9% 30% -37.4%
20% -35.9% 18% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses33 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)67 / 76
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 45¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 65¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? No 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +127%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +59%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -65%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +272%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +145%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -26%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$5 +330%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $1 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3h
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 52¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 14h
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $1 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 16h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 21h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.40 · official $8.71 (match) · 159 history records