Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

12 0x120b…f86e other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$80 (+25%) realized +$69 · open +$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%10W / 12L

Drawdown34%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day11.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)+3.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+14.5%	+3.6%	45%	45%	+13.8%
≤30d	22	+14.5%	+3.6%	45%	45%	+13.8%
≤90d	22	+14.5%	+3.6%	45%	45%	+13.8%
all	22	+14.5%	+3.6%	45%	45%	+13.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.6%	45%	+13.8%
10%	-6.3%	36%	+2.9%
15%	-15.4%	32%	-7.0%
20%	-23.7%	32%	-16.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -29% → late +58% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$36

Realized+$69

Unrealized+$11

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses10 / 12

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage4d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day11.8

Drawdown34%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5	Under	35¢	51¢	$25	$36	+$11 (+46%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$49	+$10	+21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$20	+$14	+67%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 22	$4	−$2	-59%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$25	+$43	+170%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	−$1	-5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$25	−$25	-99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$1	+$7	+649%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$65	+$19	+30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$15	+$11	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 20	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$23	+223%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$2	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$5	+$3	+62%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia?	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 19	$6	−$6	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5	BUY Under	35¢	$25	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$60	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	82¢	$49	5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$34	20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	13¢	$2	20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$4	21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	59¢	$20	22h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$69	23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$5	23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	43¢	$10	23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	48¢	$10	23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	49¢	$10	23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$25	29h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$8	45h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	47h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$64	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$5	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$20	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$26	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$19	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	67¢	$20	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$20	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$15	2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	99¢	$33	2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	39¢	$5	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	28¢	$5	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$22	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.43 · official $36.43 (match) · 51 history records