Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1208…bb52 crypto 169 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate70%116W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$63
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$3
other 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -29.7% -36.4% 44% 35% -36.5%
≤30d 166 -2.0% -11.3% 70% 53% -9.3%
≤90d 166 -2.0% -11.3% 70% 53% -9.3%
all 166 -2.0% -11.3% 70% 53% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 53% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 34% -18.0%
15% -27.6% 17% -25.9%
20% -34.7% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses116 / 50
Open positions3
Markets (closed)166 / 169
History coverage12d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $4 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.09 · official $5.09 (match) · 471 history records