Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:51:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x1208…0160
crypto · 664 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$507 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$538 · open +$31
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$232
Realized−$538
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses281 / 374
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions9
Markets (closed)655 / 664
History coverage7d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day448.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 9 History 655 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$353
7 days−$538
14 days−$538
30 days−$538
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 82¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+48%)
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 66¢ $35 $52 +$17 (+47%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $45 $45 +$1 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $14 $19 +$4 (+30%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Over 13¢ 55¢ $4 $17 +$13 (+323%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Up 61¢ 88¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+46%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Toronto Tempo 14¢ 4¢ $40 $10 −$30 (-75%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs Modo Serio 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 23¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner T1 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Sorana Cirstea 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Zeynep Sonmez 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$47 +100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -33%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $3 +$5 +162%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $3 +$3 +112%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $20 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$6 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Volodymyr Iakubenko vs Maxwell Mckennon Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $290 −$22 -8%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $58 +$49 +85%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $3 +$4 +134%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $90 −$89 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +103%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$6 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 48% −$404
sports 46% −$211
other 5% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 19¢ $3 11m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $94 13m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 15¢ $4 15m
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $18 15m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 16m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 16m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 4¢ $0 17m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 4¢ $0 17m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 4¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 18m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 7¢ $3 18m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 7¢ $2 18m
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $0 20m
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $7 20m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 21m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 2¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 27m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 30m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 91¢ $8 30m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 34m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 34m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 0¢ $1 37m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 10¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 38m
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 39m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 39m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 40m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 655 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 38% -15.1%
≤30d 655 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 38% -15.1%
≤90d 655 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 38% -15.1%
all 655 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 38% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover448.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 38% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 33% -23.2%
15% -32.5% 28% -30.7%
20% -39.1% 23% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.17 · official $232.17 (match) · 3500 history records