Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x1206…8aaf
crypto · 18 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 1 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$5 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$12 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 70% +$3
other 30% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+56.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +72.5% +56.1% 53% 41% -18.7%
≤30d 17 +72.5% +56.1% 53% 41% -18.7%
≤90d 17 +72.5% +56.1% 53% 41% -18.7%
all 17 +72.5% +56.1% 53% 41% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +56.1% 41% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here +41.2% 35% -26.5%
15% +27.5% 35% -33.6%
20% +15.0% 24% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.91 · official $14.91 (match) · 63 history records