Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x1205…13e2
sports · 16 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$744 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$697 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$582
Realized+$697
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage11d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 5 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$819
7 days+$660
14 days+$697
30 days+$697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $153 $152 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 66¢ $100 $98 −$3 (-3%)
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? No 63¢ 66¢ $31 $33 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $26 +$22 +88%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $75 +$11 +14%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $110 +$106 +96%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,755 +$737 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $57 +$61 +107%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $111 −$111 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $121 +$44 +36%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $241 +$60 +25%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% +$692
other 28% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $158 0m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $155 1m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $155 1m
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $32 45m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $102 46m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $48 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $86 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 86¢ $75 7h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $26 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $118 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $118 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $57 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 50¢ $110 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $695 2d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $111 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $508 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $72 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 28¢ $21 5d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $92 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline SELL Spurs 48¢ $92 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 50¢ $100 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $301 7d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $301 7d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 79¢ $241 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 79¢ $241 8d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 65¢ $22 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $108 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +9.3% -1.1% 67% 67% +14.7%
≤30d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 64% +13.6%
≤90d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 64% +13.6%
all 11 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 64% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 64% +13.6%
10% -17.5% 55% +2.7%
15% -25.5% 45% -7.2%
20% -32.8% 27% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $581.60 · official $581.60 (match) · 36 history records