Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1201…6b9a other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$123 (+10%) realized +$185 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%48W / 95L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days+$83
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$53
other 39% +$110
crypto 4% −$54
world 2% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +12.6% +1.9% 33% 33% -3.2%
≤30d 143 +12.5% +1.8% 34% 34% -2.9%
≤90d 143 +12.5% +1.8% 34% 34% -2.9%
all 143 +12.5% +1.8% 34% 34% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.8% 34% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -7.9% 33% -12.2%
15% -16.8% 32% -20.7%
20% -25.0% 30% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$185
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses48 / 95
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)143 / 147
History coverage8d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 28¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-45%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 52¢ 8¢ $44 $6 −$38 (-86%)
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 3 Croatia? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $6 +$34 +560%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$10 -48%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 +$10 +195%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $30 +$16 +52%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$9 +44%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 +$26 +503%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $15 +$44 +287%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 +$29 +95%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 +$5 +510%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $8 +$9 +105%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $1 +$7 +668%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $28 +$28 +99%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 +$37 +365%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $16 +$35 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 52¢ $30 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 2h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $24 2h
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 73¢ $15 3h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $14 4h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $5 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Ghana? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 48¢ $14 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 6h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $46 21h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 65¢ $30 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 78¢ $29 22h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.18 · official $50.50 · 329 history records