Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x1201…a74d sports 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,142 (+8%) realized +$1,154 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%89W / 81L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$795
7 days+$931
14 days+$864
30 days+$698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$1,232
other 16% −$255
politics 11% +$136
world 2% −$34
crypto 0% +$51
economics 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +15.1% +4.1% 56% 52% +46.2%
≤30d 40 +1.9% -7.8% 48% 45% +19.6%
≤90d 91 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 46% +4.3%
all 170 +1.3% -8.3% 52% 50% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 50% -2.0%
10% -17.1% 48% -11.4%
15% -25.1% 43% -20.0%
20% -32.5% 40% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$61 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$1,154
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses89 / 81
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions4
Markets (closed)170 / 176
History coverage589d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 46¢ 88¢ $20 $38 +$18 (+90%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $24 $14 −$9 (-40%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ $28 $9 −$19 (-70%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$25 +41%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 +$28 +112%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $804 +$911 +113%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $26 −$26 -97%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$26 +249%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 14 $19 +$54 +277%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $18 +$30 +165%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $30 +$18 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $20 +$28 +140%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $52 −$51 -98%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 11 $11 +$8 +69%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $25 +$18 +70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $37 +$34 +93%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 +$6 +57%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $41 +$30 +74%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $50 −$49 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $32 +$3 +8%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $46 +$36 +79%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 09 $37 +$21 +57%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 08 $57 −$56 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $29 −$3 -11%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 07 $56 −$2 -4%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 07 $74 +$28 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $35 +$18 +52%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $30 +$17 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 05 $40 −$2 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $89 −$88 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $125 −$123 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 30 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $54 −$8 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $32 −$32 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 May 15 $27 +$30 +110%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $36 −$8 -22%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) May 13 $62 +$31 +50%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) May 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $29 −$24 -82%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev May 11 $18 +$13 +69%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 41m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 42m
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 50m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 55m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a BUY $5 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 29h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 68¢ $33 29h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $35 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 59¢ $66 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $54 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 46¢ $25 45h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 46h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 64¢ $76 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $86 46h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,689 46h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights $3 46h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 11¢ $9 47h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 12¢ $14 47h
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 33¢ $20 47h
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 33¢ $10 47h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $26 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 2d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 2d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $80 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.03 · official $69.36 · 336 history records