Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:35:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
12 0x1200…8a0f crypto 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%41W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$134
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$42
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -0.8% -10.2% 67% 67% -2.8%
≤30d 81 -25.4% -32.5% 51% 51% -7.7%
≤90d 81 -25.4% -32.5% 51% 51% -7.7%
all 81 -25.4% -32.5% 51% 51% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 51% -7.7%
10% -39.0% 49% -16.5%
15% -44.9% 27% -24.6%
20% -50.3% 16% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses41 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage10d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $61 +$20 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $61 +$24 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $61 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $61 +$29 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $62 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $62 +$33 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $61 +$20 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $60 +$14 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $62 +$47 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $32 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $61 +$21 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $62 +$35 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $61 +$27 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $61 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $61 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $61 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $63 +$91 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $83 +$29 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$8 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $61 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $61 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $62 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $62 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $61 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $62 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $60 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $61 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $61 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $62 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $32 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $61 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $61 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $62 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $62 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records