Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:19:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x1200…e9b5 crypto 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$64 (+3%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%20W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$3
sports 39% +$61
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 20 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -7.1%
10% -17.5% 0% -16.0%
15% -25.5% 0% -24.1%
20% -32.8% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses20 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage242d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Deep Cross Gaming win MSI 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LNG Esports qualify for EWC 2026? Jun 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $20 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 30 $85 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 27 $64 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 31 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 31 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Jan 31 $10 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $10 $0 +0%
Solana all time high before 2026? Jan 31 $11 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 31 $11 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Jan 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 27 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $951 +$61 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Nov 02 $950 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Deep Cross Gaming win MSI 2026? BUY No 100¢ $74 1h
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 49d
Will LNG Esports qualify for EWC 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 59d
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 89d
Solana all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $85 91d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 91d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $104 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $64 148d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 148d
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 183d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 183d
Solana all time high before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 183d
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $10 183d
Ethereum all time high by December 31? BUY No 96¢ $10 211d
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 211d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 211d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 211d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 211d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 237d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 94¢ $611 238d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 94¢ $340 238d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? BUY No 100¢ $950 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.27 · official $105.27 (match) · 43 history records