Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11fb…3557 politics 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$567 (+0%) realized +$568 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,198per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$30
30 days+$1,062
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$82
other 28% −$513
sports 13% +$1,159
culture 2% −$3
crypto 2% +$2
world 1% −$13
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 +5.4% -4.6% 13% 4% -7.3%
≤90d 78 -19.8% -27.4% 10% 5% -9.6%
all 105 -8.2% -17.0% 14% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 10% -9.1%
10% -24.9% 10% -17.8%
15% -32.2% 7% -25.8%
20% -38.8% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,711) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$15 · ×8.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,108
Realized+$568
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,198
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $897 $897 −$0 (-0%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $212 $212 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,616 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,684 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,240 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,606 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,677 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $5,304 −$5 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,590 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,439 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,586 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 04 $156 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 04 $784 +$1 +0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $973 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,095 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,184 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,418 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $4,306 −$5 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,152 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 21 $877 +$1,116 +127%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $2,925 −$4 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $3,233 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,483 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,716 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2,174 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,711 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,745 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $625 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $3,834 −$4 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $2,928 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $840 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $2,820 −$3 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $3,208 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $972 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $938 −$1 -0%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 27 $89 +$28 +31%
Wizards vs. Jazz Mar 26 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $844 −$1 -0%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $93 +$25 +27%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $2,167 −$2 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $771 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $897 47h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,613 3d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,616 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,681 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,684 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,237 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $587 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,667 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,669 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,643 6d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,674 11d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,677 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,646 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,649 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,587 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,590 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,602 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,605 13d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,584 13d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,586 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,569 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,571 14d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $971 18d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $973 18d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,092 20d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,095 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,098 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,108.45 · official $1,108.45 (match) · 364 history records