Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:18:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11fa…3d0c world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%16W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$1
politics 25% $0
other 9% $0
culture 8% $0
crypto 6% +$1
sports 5% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 +0.4% -9.1% 62% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 13 +0.4% -9.1% 62% 0% -9.4%
all 42 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage317d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $47 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $27 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $22 −$1 -3%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 07 $5 $0 +4%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 20 $1 $0 -25%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 18 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 18 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in August? Aug 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 17 $5 $0 -9%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Aug 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Quiroga win by 20% or more? Aug 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $3 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on August 10 at 5PM ET? Aug 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Aug 10 $54 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $44 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 11h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $9 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 23¢ $9 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $38 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $25 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $13 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $35 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $40 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $28 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $7 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $38 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $39 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $25 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $5 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $44 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $44 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 100¢ $44 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 100¢ $44 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.40 · official $44.16 (match) · 163 history records