Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11f8…1c4e other 296 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (338 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,271 (+3%) realized +$1,251 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate53%102W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day338.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$388
14 days−$240
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$20
world 36% +$127
politics 9% −$138
tech 4% +$11
sports 2% −$152
finance 1% −$42
culture 1% +$4
crypto 1% −$50
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (338 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 +14.3% +3.4% 51% 22% -11.5%
≤30d 193 +12.0% +1.3% 53% 25% -10.4%
≤90d 193 +12.0% +1.3% 53% 25% -10.4%
all 193 +12.0% +1.3% 53% 25% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover338.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.3% 25% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -8.4% 16% -19.0%
15% -17.3% 9% -26.8%
20% -25.4% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$581
Realized+$1,251
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses102 / 91
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions182
Markets (closed)193 / 296
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$139
Trades / day338.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 182 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $243 $254 +$11 (+4%)
Will the announcers say "Foul" 7+ times during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match? No 8¢ 45¢ $8 $45 +$37 (+462%)
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $36 $36 −$1 (-1%)
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $37 $28 −$9 (-24%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? No 35¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $21 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $21 $15 −$6 (-29%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 41¢ 49¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-32%)
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 6¢ 16¢ $3 $9 +$5 (+167%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 14¢ 12¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-11%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 76¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+31%)
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 51¢ 98¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+92%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 81¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+40%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 70¢ 97¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+39%)
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+38%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 81¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 63¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? No 15¢ 84¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+455%)
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 37¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+169%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $36 −$2 -6%
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? Jun 29 $70 −$12 -17%
Will the announcers say "Oh my God" or "Oh my Goodness" during the Cro Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile be between 19 Jun 29 $7 −$3 -39%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? Jun 29 $63 +$15 +23%
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 29 $315 +$75 +24%
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Jun 29 $110 −$1 -1%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $35 +$4 +10%
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $28 +$16 +58%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $95 +$10 +10%
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $376 +$99 +26%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 29 $452 +$17 +4%
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $4 +$12 +322%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $102 +$4 +4%
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Jun 29 $81 −$34 -42%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $266 −$2 -1%
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? Jun 29 $52 +$2 +4%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 50+ times during the Colombia vs Portug Jun 29 $15 −$8 -52%
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Panama vs England FIFA Wo Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $12 +$5 +41%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Jun 29 $133 +$2 +2%
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 28 $121 −$25 -21%
Iran full airspace closure by July 31? Jun 28 $102 −$24 -24%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026 Jun 28 $0 $0 -92%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 28 $63 +$2 +3%
Will Austria be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 28 $37 +$3 +8%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 28 $256 +$7 +3%
Will the announcers say "Historic" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA Jun 28 $30 +$2 +6%
Ledger IPO before 2027? Jun 28 $16 +$15 +95%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $59 +$8 +14%
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $23 −$19 -84%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $23 +$2 +10%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $267 $0 +0%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $164 +$12 +7%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Jun 28 $6 +$3 +47%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 28 $192 −$2 -1%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wor Jun 28 $70 +$3 +4%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 28 $231 −$9 -4%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $57 +$2 +3%
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 77m? Jun 28 $194 +$5 +2%
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the Colombia Jun 28 $24 −$23 -96%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? Jun 28 $1 $0 +56%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? Jun 27 $62 −$35 -56%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 27 $144 −$3 -2%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 27 $57 +$3 +6%
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? Jun 27 $121 −$5 -4%
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31? Jun 27 $112 +$9 +8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 27 $126 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $1 0m
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 88¢ $51 0m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $1 4m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $22 4m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $22 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $2 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $48 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $3 7m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $6 7m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL Yes 12¢ $2 13m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL Yes 12¢ $2 18m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $57 18m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $37 21m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $0 21m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $0 21m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $2 21m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 21m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $2 21m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 21m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $7 21m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 22m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $7 23m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 24m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $48 24m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $101 27m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $8 27m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL Yes 12¢ $5 32m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL Yes 12¢ $1 34m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL Yes 12¢ $1 38m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL Yes 12¢ $1 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $580.98 · official $534.64 · 3500 history records