Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x11f5…5255 politics 7 markets active 165d ago coverage 624d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$18,414 (+68%) realized +$18,414 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +117% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +78% what you keep after slip
Net edge+78%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$3,844per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$16,396
crypto 15% +$31,967
other 9% +$2,842
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+96.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 7 +117.2% +96.5% 57% 57% +52.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +96.5% 57% +52.4%
10% ← realistic here +77.7% 43% +37.8%
15% +60.5% 43% +24.5%
20% +44.8% 29% +12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +117% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8,723 vs −$5,493 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18,414
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage624d
Avg bet$3,844
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 05 $2,399 +$2,842 +118%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $17,568 −$16,042 -91%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jun 17 $1,133 −$76 -7%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jun 10 $1,376 −$361 -26%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jun 08 $110 +$19 +18%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $157 +$63 +40%
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? May 23 $4,162 +$31,967 +768%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? SELL Yes 90¢ $5,241 164d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 39¢ $192 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 39¢ $141 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 38¢ $307 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 37¢ $121 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 36¢ $131 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 45¢ $266 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 44¢ $130 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 43¢ $64 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 42¢ $200 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 42¢ $160 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 44¢ $191 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 43¢ $43 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 44¢ $176 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 43¢ $230 165d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $1,526 590d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 37¢ $11,994 590d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 34¢ $5,574 598d
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? SELL No 14¢ $1,058 732d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $1,015 739d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $129 741d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 6¢ $214 741d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 741d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 741d
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY No 15¢ $1,133 742d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $34 742d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $76 742d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 4¢ $157 742d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records