Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:17:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
11 0x11f0…a094 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+9%) realized +$29 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +91% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$22
crypto 15% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+72.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +91.0% +72.8% 100% 100% +77.9%
≤30d 3 +91.0% +72.8% 100% 100% +77.9%
≤90d 3 +91.0% +72.8% 100% 100% +77.9%
all 3 +91.0% +72.8% 100% 100% +77.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +72.8% 100% +77.9%
10% +56.3% 100% +60.9%
15% +41.2% 100% +45.3%
20% +27.3% 100% +31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +97% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +91% · $-wt +97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 +$23 +54%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $39 +$57 +146%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.35 · official $128.35 · 12 history records