Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11ee…e6c6 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$98 (+22%) realized +$125 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$135
14 days+$121
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$3
sports 39% +$147
world 10% −$31
other 2% −$10
weather 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +47.0% +33.0% 50% 50% +56.5%
≤30d 26 -13.1% -21.3% 35% 27% +17.9%
≤90d 26 -13.1% -21.3% 35% 27% +17.9%
all 26 -13.1% -21.3% 35% 27% +17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 27% +17.9%
10% -28.9% 27% +6.7%
15% -35.7% 27% -3.6%
20% -42.0% 27% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -84% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$4 · ×5.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$125
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage10d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes $42 $15 −$27 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$23 +114%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $10 +$12 +118%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $41 +$44 +107%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $20 +$28 +139%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$49 +481%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on June Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $1 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $1 8h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 46¢ $20 9h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $10 10h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 100¢ $22 10h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 45¢ $10 13h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY Hive 51¢ $10 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $1 14h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 48¢ $41 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $1 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $3 21h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $2 21h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 40¢ $20 22h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 35¢ $10 25h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 41¢ $20 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 32h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 33h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $4 33h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $10 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $10 34h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $2 34h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $1 35h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $10 36h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $1 36h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $1 37h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $1 38h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $2 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.82 · official $14.82 (match) · 58 history records