Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
11 0x11ea…6b8d crypto 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,821 (-22%) realized −$8,880 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%107W / 92L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$293
7 days+$733
14 days+$890
30 days+$890
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$1,131
world 26% −$8,268
sports 7% +$405
other 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +21.4% +9.8% 57% 54% +22.5%
≤30d 31 +22.4% +10.7% 55% 52% +23.6%
≤90d 72 +2.3% -7.4% 53% 49% -54.8%
all 199 -12.5% -20.9% 54% 48% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 48% -30.9%
10% -28.4% 39% -37.5%
15% -35.3% 32% -43.5%
20% -41.7% 25% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -27% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$203 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized−$8,880
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses107 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)199 / 200
History coverage118d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 76¢ $150 $209 +$59 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $150 +$158 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $70 +$53 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 +$32 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$11 +10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $46 +$73 +158%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$23 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$56 +213%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $97 −$96 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $254 +$314 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$14 +264%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $80 −$79 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $58 +$38 +66%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $71 +$108 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $105 +$41 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$32 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $466 +$140 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$4 +15%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -25%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $681 −$143 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $157 +$301 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 25 $180 −$173 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 25 $100 +$82 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 25 $136 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 25 $135 +$37 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 25 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 25 $166 −$160 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 25 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 25 $49 +$37 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 25 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 25 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 25 $18 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 25 $36 +$19 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 25 $75 +$76 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 25 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 25 $39 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 25 $50 +$91 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 25 $199 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 25 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $152 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $307 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $101 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $150 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $61 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $113 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $15 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $70 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $46 41h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $49 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $83 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $97 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $254 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $80 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 86¢ $39 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $17 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 42¢ $57 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.64 · official $205.91 · 443 history records