Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
11 0x11e8…b3e2 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$252 (+17%) realized +$289 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate63%22W / 13L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$291
7 days+$266
14 days+$266
30 days+$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$151
sports 21% +$77
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +14.9% +3.9% 85% 69% +12.3%
≤30d 35 +13.1% +2.3% 63% 54% +11.4%
≤90d 35 +13.1% +2.3% 63% 54% +11.4%
all 35 +13.1% +2.3% 63% 54% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 54% +11.4%
10% -7.5% 40% +0.8%
15% -16.4% 31% -9.0%
20% -24.6% 23% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$5 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.73 per $1 lost it wins $4.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized+$289
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses22 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage24d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 74¢ $331 $294 −$37 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 +$22 +14%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $162 +$12 +7%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $196 +$67 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $170 +$27 +16%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $68 +$101 +148%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $64 +$5 +7%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $57 +$6 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $37 +$4 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$12 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 31 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 30 $1 +$4 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 30 $2 +$8 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 30 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 30 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $333 47m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 87¢ $151 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 3¢ $15 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $174 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $162 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $263 19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $196 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $170 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 31¢ $38 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 43h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $64 44h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $57 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $37 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-2 BUY 27¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.65 · official $308.64 · 69 history records