Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11e3…43e7 crypto 529 markets active 13h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-3%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate59%312W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$5
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$45
sports 6% −$7
finance 1% −$15
tech 1% −$6
world 1% −$1
other 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -7.3% -16.2% 71% 23% -11.6%
≤30d 278 -4.4% -13.5% 64% 41% -11.7%
≤90d 475 -11.3% -19.8% 59% 42% -14.4%
all 529 -8.7% -17.4% 59% 44% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 44% -14.6%
10% -25.3% 34% -22.8%
15% -32.5% 26% -30.3%
20% -39.2% 18% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses312 / 217
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)529 / 529
History coverage170d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 529 Trades
no open positions (107 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$10 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $17 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1295 history records