Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:43:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11e1…9305 sports 828 markets active 4h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$763 (-15%) realized −$764 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%324W / 480L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day107.6pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$209
14 days−$288
30 days−$588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$409
other 26% −$152
world 3% −$60
crypto 2% +$38
politics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -8.6% -17.3% 40% 39% -24.5%
≤30d 804 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 33% -20.0%
≤90d 804 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 33% -20.0%
all 804 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 33% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 33% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 29% -27.7%
15% -31.7% 24% -34.7%
20% -38.4% 22% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$764
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses324 / 480
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions25
Markets (closed)804 / 828
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day107.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 804 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+63%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 83¢ 72¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 92¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 88¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 76¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+28%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 70¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 15¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will James Rodríguez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-71%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 75¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 21¢ 89¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+329%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 28¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$5 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $54 −$6 -11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$2 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +129%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$10 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $7 −$6 -84%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$2 -16%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$13 +152%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $13 +$11 +83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 +$7 +213%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $8 −$3 -44%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $87 −$35 -41%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 −$47 -66%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $63 +$27 +43%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$10 +319%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $29 +$16 +55%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $28 −$27 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$9 +414%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $40 +$23 +58%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +238%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$12 +216%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $16 −$3 -19%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $14 −$3 -19%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$2 +73%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $27 −$26 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $32 −$31 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $2 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 3h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Athletics 25¢ $1 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $3 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $7 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 62¢ $30 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $2 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $28 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 7h
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Houston Astros 32¢ $1 8h
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) BUY Houston Astros 24¢ $1 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL No 59¢ $1 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $1 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $3 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $2 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $1 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $2 10h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL No 46¢ $1 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.83 · official $75.77 · 3500 history records