Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
11 0x11e1…9577 politics 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,443 (+16%) realized +$3,951 · open −$508
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$3,567per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,013
7 days+$3,013
14 days+$3,013
30 days+$3,365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$3,425
politics 46% −$569
sports 2% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +29.3% +17.0% 100% 100% +17.0%
≤30d 3 +19.5% +8.1% 67% 67% +16.6%
≤90d 4 +11.6% +1.0% 50% 50% +15.3%
all 4 +11.6% +1.0% 50% 50% +15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 50% +15.3%
10% ← realistic here -8.7% 50% +4.3%
15% -17.5% 25% -5.8%
20% -25.6% 0% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,713 vs −$56 · ×30.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×30.65 per $1 lost it wins $30.65
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$7,462
Realized+$3,951
Unrealized−$508
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage56d
Avg bet$3,567
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $7,550 $7,459 −$91 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $420 $3 −$417 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $10,276 +$3,013 +29%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $421 −$60 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $950 +$413 +44%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $426 −$51 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 57¢ $7,981 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $7,981 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 32¢ $448 17d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 68¢ $360 17d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 72¢ $421 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 29¢ $513 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 47¢ $898 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $900 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 58¢ $7 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 57¢ $104 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 58¢ $5,720 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 99¢ $1,363 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 55¢ $4,407 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 47¢ $312 32d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $374 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 52¢ $73 33d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $426 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 52¢ $1,560 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $250 43d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $450 43d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 66¢ $950 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 48¢ $900 50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 52¢ $900 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,461.77 · official $7,463.09 (match) · 23 history records