Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
11 0x11df…731f other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15,894 (-9%) realized −$15,931 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate48%56W / 60L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,280per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$2,394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$341
14 days+$197
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 70% −$14,136
politics 14% +$995
other 10% −$306
crypto 3% −$199
sports 3% −$1,218
world 1% −$1,039
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +55.7% +40.9% 52% 52% +14.7%
≤30d 30 +37.3% +24.2% 50% 43% -8.1%
≤90d 39 +23.6% +11.8% 46% 41% -8.8%
all 116 +2.1% -7.6% 48% 29% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 29% -18.0%
10% -16.5% 27% -25.9%
15% -24.5% 24% -33.0%
20% -31.9% 17% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$668) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$379 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$2,394
Realized−$15,931
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses56 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions19
Markets (closed)116 / 135
History coverage370d
Avg bet$1,280
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 90¢ 92¢ $500 $513 +$13 (+3%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 91¢ 91¢ $455 $455 +$0 (+0%)
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 90¢ 97¢ $336 $358 +$23 (+7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $150 $155 +$5 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $140 $142 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $76 $81 +$5 (+7%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 32¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 13¢ 10¢ $13 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $136 +$64 +47%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $34 −$30 -90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $138 +$62 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $125 +$69 +55%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$29 +282%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $37 +$38 +101%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$22 +43%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$133 +1290%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$69 +53%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$41 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $81 +$139 +170%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 −$16 -64%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 12 $450 −$245 -54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$67 +262%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $86 −$45 -52%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $5,555 +$70 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $4,965 +$25 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 04 $190 −$26 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 02 $5 +$10 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 12 $100 +$48 +48%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 07 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 07 $12 −$12 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $100 +$69 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 20 $717 +$4 +0%
Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 19 $2,459 +$38 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 14 $14,137 +$173 +1%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Feb 16 $556 −$351 -63%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Feb 08 $650 −$498 -77%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $100 −$38 -38%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $50 +$32 +64%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $50 +$33 +67%
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 08 $21 −$9 -44%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 07 $500 −$91 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $36 2h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 1¢ $4 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 6¢ $5 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 6¢ $6 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $12 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $194 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 47h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $39 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 31¢ $8 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $29 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $10 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,393.89 · official $2,393.90 (match) · 678 history records