Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
11 0x11df…f9e9 politics 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$9
other 19% +$1
politics 18% $0
sports 10% +$1
tech 9% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.2% -6.6% 40% 20% -6.4%
≤30d 13 +1.8% -7.9% 46% 8% -7.5%
≤90d 13 +1.8% -7.9% 46% 8% -7.5%
all 54 +0.2% -9.3% 41% 2% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -8.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.2 per $1 lost it wins $9.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage280d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $46 +$2 +3%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $49 +$6 +13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $23 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $43 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $47 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $42 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $5 $0 -4%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 10? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $5 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 01 $4 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 30 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 29 $5 $0 +2%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 26 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 26 $30 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 24 $8 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $29 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $55 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $55 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $11 22h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $36 22h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 25h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $15 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $22 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $27 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $49 34h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $24 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $25 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $19 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $24 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $6 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $48 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $47 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $7 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $35 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $32 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records