Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:53:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x11d8…aae7 sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$476 (+33%) realized +$472 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%31W / 38L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$325
other 7% +$140
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +14.3% +3.4% 64% 64% +4.9%
≤30d 19 -22.9% -30.2% 42% 42% -31.9%
≤90d 69 -6.8% -15.7% 45% 45% +19.7%
all 69 -6.8% -15.7% 45% 45% +19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 45% +19.7%
10% -23.8% 43% +8.2%
15% -31.1% 42% -2.2%
20% -37.9% 39% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$15 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$472
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses31 / 38
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions5
Markets (closed)69 / 74
History coverage64d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Gyula: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Stefan Seifert Sam Ryan Ziegann 27¢ 99¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+267%)
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli Raffaele Ciurnelli 24¢ 60¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+148%)
ITF Tauste: Raquel Gonzalez Vilar vs Vaishnavi Adkar Raquel Gonzalez Vilar 36¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
ITF Milano: Luca Potenza vs Giovanni Oradini Luca Potenza 46¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
ITF Dinard: Leilany Ipunesso vs Elise Renard Leilany Ipunesso 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Vaasa: Jeri Lassila vs Linus Lagerbohm Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Vaasa: Nikola Slavic vs Karl Friberg Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Vaasa: Filip Peliwo vs Kristjan Tamm Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Wichita: Philip Sekulic vs Blake Ellis Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
ITF Cuiaba: Francesca Mattioli vs Carolina Alves Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 10 $1 +$1 +50%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 10 $1 +$1 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $1 +$1 +79%
Centurion: Giles Hussey vs Edward Winter Jun 10 $1 +$1 +86%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 10 $1 +$1 +129%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 09 $1 +$1 +107%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm May 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Sabres vs. Bruins May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Oeiras 4: Polina Kudermetova vs Lucia Bronzetti May 01 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 24? May 01 $1 $0 +13%
Madrid Open: Anhelina Kalinina vs Naomi Osaka May 01 $1 +$1 +73%
LoL: Lodis vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season May 01 $1 +$1 +114%
LoL: Estral Esports vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO1) - Circuito Desafia May 01 $1 +$2 +134%
Sabres vs. Bruins May 01 $5 +$5 +101%
Oeiras 4: Elena Pridankina vs Fiona Ferro Apr 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Senshi Esports Club vs The Bandits (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regula Apr 21 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Apr 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 21 $10 +$15 +158%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 21 $24 +$74 +307%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 19 $17 −$17 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 19 $6 +$9 +152%
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 19 $13 +$8 +67%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 18 $48 −$46 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 17 $22 +$28 +129%
Sharks vs. Jets Apr 17 $29 +$41 +144%
Kraken vs. Avalanche Apr 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Dinard: Leilany Ipunesso vs Elise Renard BUY Leilany Ipunesso 23¢ $1 1h
ITF Gyula: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Stefan Seifert BUY Sam Ryan Ziegann 27¢ $1 1h
ITF Milano: Luca Potenza vs Giovanni Oradini BUY Luca Potenza 46¢ $1 1h
ITF Tauste: Raquel Gonzalez Vilar vs Vaishnavi Adkar BUY Raquel Gonzalez Vilar 36¢ $1 1h
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli BUY Raffaele Ciurnelli 24¢ $1 1h
ITF Vaasa: Jeri Lassila vs Linus Lagerbohm BUY Jeri Lassila 32¢ $1 6d
ITF Vaasa: Nikola Slavic vs Karl Friberg BUY Nikola Slavic 48¢ $1 6d
ITF Vaasa: Filip Peliwo vs Kristjan Tamm BUY Kristjan Tamm 30¢ $1 6d
ITF Wichita: Philip Sekulic vs Blake Ellis BUY Blake Ellis 39¢ $1 6d
ITF Cuiaba: Francesca Mattioli vs Carolina Alves BUY Francesca Mattioli 16¢ $1 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $1 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 55¢ $1 7d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $1 7d
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria BUY Maria Sakkari 48¢ $1 7d
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 48¢ $1 7d
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally BUY Emma Navarro 69¢ $1 7d
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Cezar Cretu 42¢ $1 16d
Centurion: Giles Hussey vs Edward Winter BUY Giles Hussey 53¢ $1 16d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $1 16d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 43¢ $1 24d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 55¢ $1 26d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 65¢ $1 26d
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud BUY Alexei Popyrin 10¢ $1 26d
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm BUY Arthur Rinderknech 63¢ $1 32d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 60¢ $1 32d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 56¢ $1 32d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $1 32d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $1 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 66¢ $1 32d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.68 · official $12.68 (match) · 103 history records