Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x11d8…e21f crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 515d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%39W / 12L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$1
other 24% $0
politics 17% $0
tech 11% $0
sports 7% $0
weather 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 51 +0.2% -9.4% 76% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

515d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses39 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage515d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 04 $22 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 04 $32 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Mar 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.28 in April? May 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +2%
Will the People's party win the most seats in the next Canadian electi Mar 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Golden Knights win the 2025 Preident's Trophy? Mar 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Clint Capela lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? Feb 06 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY No 100¢ $64 2h
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $53 30d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $22 61d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 99¢ $32 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 91d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 91d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $19 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $42 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 148d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $17 149d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $34 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $7 181d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 182d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $27 210d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $29 211d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 240d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $18 273d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $31 273d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $26 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $28 302d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $18 332d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 99¢ $33 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 363d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 365d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 395d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 395d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.94 · official $63.94 (match) · 111 history records