Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:02:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x11d8…c55b other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$76 (+6%) realized +$81 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$169
30 days+$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$6
sports 34% +$112
crypto 18% −$32
economics 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +79.0% +61.9% 100% 100% +64.4%
≤90d 7 +6.6% -3.6% 71% 29% +0.7%
all 13 -19.3% -27.0% 62% 15% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 15% -0.6%
10% -33.9% 15% -10.1%
15% -40.3% 15% -18.8%
20% -46.2% 15% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$34 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$503
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage160d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $508 $503 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $181 +$169 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $122 +$79 +65%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 22 $137 −$135 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Negative GDP growth in 2025? Apr 22 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? Apr 22 $240 −$32 -13%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by January 31? Feb 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 02 $23 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $502.95 · official $502.95 (match) · 25 history records