Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
11 0x11d4…7454 crypto 33 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$72 (+55%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$61
crypto 44% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +7.6% -2.6% 58% 42% +40.8%
≤30d 33 +7.6% -2.6% 58% 42% +40.8%
≤90d 33 +7.6% -2.6% 58% 42% +40.8%
all 33 +7.6% -2.6% 58% 42% +40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 42% +40.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 36% +27.3%
15% -20.4% 27% +15.0%
20% -28.2% 18% +3.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.48 per $1 lost it wins $9.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $45 +$49 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +276%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +88%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $28 +$12 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $22 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records