Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11d0…69c9 weather 980 markets active 18h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$380 (-5%) realized −$380 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate13%129W / 849L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day54.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$1
14 days−$75
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$231
sports 2% −$59
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-56.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -28.7% -35.5% 44% 12% -9.5%
≤30d 371 -65.1% -68.5% 13% 9% -10.1%
≤90d 978 -51.9% -56.5% 13% 11% -13.9%
all 978 -51.9% -56.5% 13% 11% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.5% 11% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -60.6% 10% -22.1%
15% -64.4% 9% -29.6%
20% -67.9% 9% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×5.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$380
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses129 / 849
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)978 / 980
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day54.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 978 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $547 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $409 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -11%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $61 −$53 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $535 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $19 −$11 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$35 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $252 +$13 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $496 +$21 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Jun 09 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 8? Jun 09 $484 +$18 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6? Jun 07 $523 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? Jun 06 $71 −$60 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 06 $30 −$29 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 4? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on June 4? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 4? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 4? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 4? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 4? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 4? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 5? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 4? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 4? Jun 06 $11 −$3 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 4? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $538 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $62 40h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 40h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 77¢ $3 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 77¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 77¢ $10 41h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 42h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 64¢ $0 42h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 64¢ $0 42h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.95 · official $6.95 (match) · 3500 history records