Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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11 0x11ce…d8fa crypto 645 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$153 (+2%) realized +$155 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%375W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$8
14 days−$32
30 days−$368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$34
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -3.5% -12.7% 65% 57% -7.9%
≤30d 595 -6.6% -15.5% 58% 47% -14.7%
≤90d 641 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 48% -9.9%
all 641 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 48% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 48% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 36% -18.5%
15% -29.4% 27% -26.4%
20% -36.3% 20% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$155
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses375 / 266
Open positions4
Markets (closed)641 / 645
History coverage37d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 641 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 81¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 168 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$5 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $61 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $8 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.35 · official $11.35 (match) · 1664 history records