Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x11ce…848b sports 61 markets active 5d ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$116 (+17%) realized +$128 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$110
crypto 14% $0
other 5% +$10
finance 2% −$12
politics 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 36 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 44% +5.4%
≤90d 48 +8.2% -2.1% 52% 46% +9.2%
all 48 +8.2% -2.1% 52% 46% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 46% +9.2%
10% -11.5% 38% -1.2%
15% -20.0% 31% -10.8%
20% -27.9% 25% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions13
Markets (closed)48 / 61
History coverage61d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 82¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 66¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 84¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Yes 63¢ 12¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-82%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Yes 35¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 07 $1 $0 -43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $5 +$5 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $5 −$1 -21%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $2 −$1 -54%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 −$5 -53%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? May 31 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $6 +$2 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $7 +$3 +42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1 $0 -21%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1 $0 -21%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1 $0 -21%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $5 $0 -8%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $5 $0 -2%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 30 $2 +$3 +140%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +18%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $10 +$4 +41%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $67 +$18 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $10 $0 +3%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $10 +$6 +64%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $2 +$2 +76%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $88 +$5 +6%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $20 +$7 +34%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $76 +$12 +16%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $20 +$14 +68%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $45 +$6 +14%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $5 +$1 +13%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $1 −$1 -75%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $10 +$12 +114%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $5 $0 +9%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 28 $11 +$9 +84%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $5 −$2 -32%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 17 $10 −$6 -59%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 17 $5 +$18 +365%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 17 $1 +$2 +180%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $12 +$6 +49%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Gujarat Titans Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 11 $22 +$17 +76%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $11 +$17 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $1 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $5 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 51¢ $5 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Frances Tiafoe 41¢ $4 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo SELL Alejandro Tabilo 11¢ $1 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 23¢ $2 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 50¢ $5 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $10 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 16d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 16d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $2 16d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 48¢ $1 16d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 100¢ $33 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 62¢ $5 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.61 · official $103.61 (match) · 169 history records