Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11cc…7332 world 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%24W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$7
other 22% $0
politics 18% −$1
sports 5% −$10
crypto 5% −$3
economics 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 22 -4.2% -13.3% 32% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 60 -3.4% -12.6% 32% 2% -9.7%
all 73 -3.7% -12.8% 33% 5% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 5% -10.3%
10% -21.2% 3% -18.9%
15% -28.8% 1% -26.7%
20% -35.8% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses24 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)73 / 77
History coverage531d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 73¢ 77¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $85 −$2 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $29 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $31 −$1 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $124 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $66 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $30 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $54 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $19 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $24 −$2 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $2 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $23 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $33 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $39 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $86 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $112 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 05 $2 $0 -7%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $28 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $28 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $30 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $30 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $25 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $25 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $3 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $28 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $28 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $24 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $24 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $27 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $28 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $16 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.94 · official $30.93 · 282 history records