Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:32:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x11cb…cd6e other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+0%) realized +$63 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%30W / 2L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$37
politics 25% +$13
world 19% +$1
crypto 15% +$3
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 90% 0% -9.2%
all 32 +0.9% -8.8% 94% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 3% -9.1%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,107) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×12.32 per $1 lost it wins $12.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses30 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage236d
Avg bet$370
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 22 above $260? No 99¢ 98¢ $108 $106 −$2 (-2%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at >$265 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 92¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 25 $1,257 +$12 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $135 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 06 $134 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $1,115 +$7 +1%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 12 $1,118 −$5 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 26 $1,114 +$6 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 April 13-19? Apr 23 $1,112 +$2 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $1,108 +$5 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $1,107 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 01 $1,851 +$5 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $152 +$2 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 March 2-8? Mar 16 $151 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Feb 28 $150 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of January 19 above $30? Jan 25 $148 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$140 on the final day of trading of the Jan 20 $147 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.70 January 5-11? Jan 13 $147 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 11 $143 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Jan 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025? Dec 31 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $142 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 22 $91 +$14 +15%
Will SOL flip ETH in 2025? Dec 20 $129 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Dec 10 $81 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? Dec 04 $128 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Nov 28 $68 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 17 $126 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 13 $127 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2? Nov 07 $121 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at >$265 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 22 above $260? BUY No 99¢ $108 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $135 13h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $134 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $29 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $29 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $20 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $20 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $6 18d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $135 19d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $134 29d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1,134 29d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1,122 41d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $306 45d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $301 45d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $808 45d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $812 45d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $705 47d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 55d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $195 55d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 55d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $13 55d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $146 55d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,120 61d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $284 64d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $78 64d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $92 64d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $83 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.36 · official $131.36 (match) · 110 history records