Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11cb…e092 world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%23W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$1
politics 26% $0
other 20% −$11
sports 17% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 25% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 19 -2.1% -11.4% 32% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 64 -3.1% -12.3% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 70 -6.2% -15.1% 33% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 0% -10.1%
10% -23.2% 0% -18.7%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses23 / 47
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage527d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $38 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $72 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $72 −$2 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $38 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 27 $4 −$1 -29%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $15 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $70 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $16 −$2 -15%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $164 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $75 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $75 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $130 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $78 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $15 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $8 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $8 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $36 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $40 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $38 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $35 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $29 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $38 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $37 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $16 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $37 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $37 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $37 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.90 · official $39.26 (match) · 288 history records