Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:52:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
11 0x11c9…c4b2 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+31%) realized +$33 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$46
sports 4% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +47.0% +33.0% 40% 40% +67.7%
≤30d 15 +47.0% +33.0% 40% 40% +67.7%
≤90d 15 +47.0% +33.0% 40% 40% +67.7%
all 15 +47.0% +33.0% 40% 40% +67.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.0% 40% +67.7%
10% ← realistic here +20.3% 40% +51.7%
15% +8.7% 40% +37.0%
20% -2.0% 33% +23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +126% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$4 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$61 +385%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$13 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$9 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$12 +375%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $15 7h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 27 history records