Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11c9…232c weather 395 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$325 (-13%) realized −$315 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%51W / 298L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$291
14 days+$291
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 58% −$93
other 18% −$55
culture 11% −$270
sports 10% +$111
politics 2% −$17
crypto 1% −$6
finance 0% −$10
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +348.2% +305.6% 47% 47% +416.9%
≤30d 69 +32.8% +20.2% 13% 13% +11.5%
≤90d 340 -10.2% -18.8% 14% 14% -24.9%
all 349 -8.9% -17.6% 15% 15% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 15% -23.1%
10% -25.5% 15% -30.4%
15% -32.7% 15% -37.2%
20% -39.3% 14% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$7 · ×4.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$315
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses51 / 298
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions31
Markets (closed)349 / 395
History coverage96d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $1 +$13 +1290%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$29 +1432%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$37 +718%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +567%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $15 +$227 +1482%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 28? May 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Canadian Gr May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on May 23? May 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on May 23? May 23 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 22? May 23 $1 +$3 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 22? May 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $18 −$18 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 11? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 11? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 11? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 13? May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on May 6? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 7? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 8? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 10? May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 4? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 13? May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 15? May 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 0m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 22m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 24m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 24m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 25m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.60 · official $184.62 · 956 history records