Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:53:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
11 0x11c9…9bef sports 187 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%117W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$101
14 days+$97
30 days+$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$60
other 4% +$48
crypto 1% −$45
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +13.8% +3.0% 67% 50% +2.1%
≤30d 44 +8.8% -1.6% 64% 57% +2.4%
≤90d 151 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 59% -12.4%
all 184 +2.3% -7.5% 64% 59% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 59% -10.1%
10% -16.3% 46% -18.7%
15% -24.4% 34% -26.6%
20% -31.8% 28% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$42 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses117 / 67
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions1
Markets (closed)184 / 187
History coverage98d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $220 +$14 +6%
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $100 +$29 +29%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 23 $42 +$14 +34%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$8 -75%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 21 $34 −$34 -99%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 20 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -99%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $66 +$14 +21%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$34 +344%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $190 +$32 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $220 +$238 +109%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $76 +$44 +59%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $29 +$11 +38%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 12 $22 +$16 +73%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $140 +$50 +36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $93 −$92 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $93 −$72 -78%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 10 $44 +$16 +35%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 09 $29 +$21 +72%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $189 +$123 +65%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 07 $36 +$3 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $48 +$76 +157%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $25 +$15 +62%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $45 +$5 +12%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 04 $12 +$9 +71%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $60 −$2 -3%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 03 $32 +$23 +72%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 02 $28 −$28 -99%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Samsung Lions May 31 $17 −$17 -98%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Samsung Lions May 30 $56 +$40 +72%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $52 +$20 +38%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 27 $89 +$10 +11%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 27 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $14 +$26 +183%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $93 +$21 +23%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $37 +$52 +142%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 24 $42 +$58 +138%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $13 $0 +3%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $61 +$39 +64%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $82 +$17 +21%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 22 $67 −$67 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $32 −$32 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $234 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $220 2h
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 94¢ $89 5h
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 94¢ $16 5h
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 94¢ $19 5h
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 5h
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 72¢ $100 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 13h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026- BUY 3¢ $7 13h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins SELL LG Twins 100¢ $57 17h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 74¢ $42 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 61¢ $9 2d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 62¢ $25 2d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 47¢ $14 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $19 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5d
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Kiwoom Heroes 69¢ $10 5d
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Kiwoom Heroes 37¢ $20 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $80 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $66 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $190 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 45¢ $20 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 84¢ $50 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $30 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 9¢ $12 9d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY SSG Landers 6¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.33 · official $50.33 (match) · 611 history records