Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11c9…1184 sports 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,560 (-25%) realized −$1,560 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%46W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$136
14 days−$378
30 days−$1,398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,332
other 9% −$109
world 1% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +2.1% -7.7% 26% 26% +6.0%
≤30d 201 -19.3% -27.0% 23% 22% -32.8%
≤90d 201 -19.3% -27.0% 23% 22% -32.8%
all 201 -19.3% -27.0% 23% 22% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 22% -32.8%
10% -34.0% 22% -39.2%
15% -40.4% 22% -45.1%
20% -46.2% 22% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$24 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,560
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses46 / 155
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 235
History coverage19d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions (133 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -89%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Aus Jun 17 $8 +$34 +411%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Set Handicap: Kecmanovic (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $9 +$6 +62%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $10 +$22 +217%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$17 +110%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Jun 15 $10 −$9 -91%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Eg Jun 15 $17 −$3 -18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $14 +$27 +191%
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovin Jun 13 $20 +$265 +1300%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $16 +$14 +88%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: Jun 12 $5 −$1 -24%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $23 +$16 +67%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 AND United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$2 -43%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $14 +$11 +79%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $40 −$1 -2%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 AND United States vs. Parag Jun 12 $8 −$3 -34%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 12 $13 −$4 -33%
Set Handicap: Jong (-1.5) vs Cecchinato (+1.5) Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 −$2 -11%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) AND Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina Jun 12 $15 −$2 -14%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegov Jun 12 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States Jun 12 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 +$28 +219%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $19 −$10 -52%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $57 −$12 -21%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Jerusalem Jun 11 $29 −$28 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $38 +$56 +148%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Por BUY $10 0m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Po BUY $7 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Aus SELL 19¢ $42 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira BUY $7 11h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) AND Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND BUY $3 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY $5 11h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Will Ghana vs. Pa BUY $5 11h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 11¢ $5 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Austri BUY 14¢ $21 12h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: Austria (- BUY $7 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Will France vs. S BUY $7 12h
Set Handicap: Kecmanovic (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) BUY Kecmanovic 41¢ $22 17h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 20¢ $10 18h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 55¢ $15 18h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 33¢ $9 19h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov $5 19h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik SELL Mattia Bellucci 91¢ $32 20h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 28¢ $5 23h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (- BUY $5 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Aus BUY $8 23h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: Austria (-2.5) AND Will France win o BUY $3 23h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 28¢ $5 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win BUY $5 24h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: Austria (-2.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY $5 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 28h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY $14 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $4 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $32.00 · 367 history records